Props to Bill Gross
Rather than the gossipy crap I’ve heard all month, here’s some deserved props, appreciation, and a little deconstruction for Bill Gross....
Widowmakers Everywhere: 3% is the New 5%
Speed Read Implied vol and implied vol products on duration sovereigns have matched or breached historic lows. Implied vol is so cheap it...
One Recession Away: A Deutsche Bank Pre-Mortem Autopsy
Speed Read Banks are shaped by their environment, and Deutsche Bank is the product of an environment designed to extend credit with...
Making Cash Great Again: The Trump Trade as the Replacement to Risk Parity Trades
The macro trade du jour from, say 2010 to 2016 was risk parity. Be long risk, short USD, and hedge with long duration treasuries. It...
Trading Market-Contingent Guidance: Taking Stock of the Fed Put
Markets received a Fed-inspired whipsaw in December and January. Leading up to December, the Fed gave plenty of warning that liquidity...
Some Not-As-Simple Accounting of a Hedge Book
Derivative markets continue to evolve. Initial derivatives trading was for hedging purposes and essential for more efficient functioning...
Rate Hikes are a Sideshow. The Fed as Non-Buyer of Last Resort.
Proposition: Cash reserves stored at central banks are the ultimate by-product of QE. The Fed’s big balance sheet means big reserves. ...
2018 Idiosyncratic Events Becoming 2019 Systemic Issues
February’s vol spike. March’s LIBOR/OIS divergence. May’s Turkey/Argentina crisis. June’s political changes in Italy. For most of...
The End of Davos Man?
I like to look back on old investor reports I have saved to remind myself that prediction of the future is nearly impossible, and to find...
With UniCredit, PIMCO Steps Out of the Bill Gross Shadow
PIMCO stepped up and bought the whole $3 billion, 5Y megillah from UniCredit. For a coupon of 7.83%. Yes, a 7.83% shearing, 420 basis...