

Ukraine: Bonds and Banks as Barometer
It’s not that I disbelieve economic statistics that governments publish. It’s that the bureaucrats collating the numbers don’t have...

High Yield Credit Valuation Using Rating Buckets
High yield credit (HY) is a very diverse class of credit across all kinds of industries—financial, energy, healthcare, retail, on and on....


Emerging Market Bank Valuation: A Call Option Model
A bank is a call option on a portfolio of assets. A bank’s assets primarily consist of government debt, loans, and a smattering of...


The Stele of the Vulture
I predict a Greek GGB default in July. Greece will make payments to the IMF, and EFSF payments are not due for a good period of time. ...
Genetic Algorithms and the Hedge Fund Technological Arms Race
May 6, 2015. Aidyia, a hedge fund that uses artificial intelligence for trading markets, is getting publicity. It is not the first...


Bill Gross and Thin and Trendy Credit
Bill Gross is no idiot. I would deeply appreciate if he published a book of his collected investor letters/investment outlooks since...


The Carry Trade is Getting Ready to Roar
The fundamental desirability of fixed income over alternative investments is attractive yield and how that impacts its generalization,...


Natalie Jaresko, Finance Minister of the Year
My draft nomination speech for Natalie Jaresko for the Coveted 2015 Finance Minister of the Year contest Natalie Jaresko is as we speak...


AT&T and What Comes After the Stumbling, Tottering, Reach for Yield
My favorite credit news source, CreditFlux, reports so of the latest crazy in bondland. To wit: AT&T. In the third-largest deal in...
Secular Stagnation, QE and Quitting the Fake Stuff
It is the era of the endless reboot. That is all the reason needed to rehash the theme of “secular stagnation”—a reboot of an idea by...