Greece would be Irrational to not Default with that In-the-Money Put
“Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” —Tolstoy “Everyone should feel screwed in a debt rework. ...
ECB Quantitative Easing is not Credit Easing
I've made it clear my admiration for Draghi given his ability to get anything done given the political challenges he faces. But if...
Syriza and the Soul of a Bank Under Hyperinflation
The biggest concern is if the market views Grexit as an isolated case that poses little systemic risk and credit investors have a more...
From Credit Risk to Existential Risk
“The ideal of morality has no more dangerous rival than the ideal of supreme strength, which has also been called the ideal of aesthetic...
The Market Weighs Draghi's QE
My respect for Mario Draghi grows. He navigated the eclectic, passive aggressive minefield that is the EU, offering sacrificial gambits...
Ukrainian Renegotiations
Wo aber Gefahr ist, wächst Das Rettende auch. <Where the danger is, so grows the saving power.> —Hölderlin, Patmos I’ve been watching...
Credit Doesn't Care About EURCHF
An Interesting Swiss Divergence Last week Switzerland gave us all a move that we will be talking about to our grandchildren. After...
The Heart Attack in Putinastan
Russia is a position trader's paradise. The largest corporations have cheap valuations, and command sufficient state support that they...
Some Thoughts on Ukrainian Debt (Part II: Corporate Debt)
Mandelstam versus Milosz Ukraine is faced with a historic choice that determines whether history will look back on the bloodshed and...
Some Thoughts on Ukrainian Credit (Part I: Sovereign Debt)
Ukrainians seem to yell a lot—not in an angry way, just in a loud and boisterous way. They have good reason to yell. As a people, they...