Basel III, Black Swans, and Uncle Larry
The Basel Accords I, II, the ariving III, and the future IV all exist because of a paradox. Banking activities are considered so...
Korean Banks Signal China Troubles
Growth for growth’s sake is pretty much over. This reflects the need to retool investment strategies to exploit what progress actually...
The Implications of Global Aging on Fixed Income
By 2050, the global population growth rate will likely decelerate from 1.25% currently to only 0.25%. This will raise the world’s age...
Volatility Puzzles and Modeling Them
This post links two themes. The first is modeling complex, interacting systems that evolve over time, and the second is the...
サヨナラ渡辺さんはじめまして中村先生。
The Japanese art of downsizing can only go so far. Once liabilities have been cut to the bone, atrophy is the only possible outcome of...
HY Has Momentum. Be Wary of the EM Tranche.
It is clear that the North American High Yield index tranche is making a big move and looks to be gearing up for spread improvement. No...
Compression Trade Closed in Flaming Ruin
Forget it, trade closed Nothing but pain going forward. There is a stubborn view that the Fed will raise rates. There is rumor that...
Does Bargain Hunting Matter Anymore? In High Yield It Sure Does.
I’ve talked about bond guys who essentially take a rating agency approach to buying bonds. They go out in terms of maturities, they go...
Japanese Prefecture Debt, Overpriced Nikkei, and GDP Bonsai
“Real danger is nothing more than just living. Of course, living is merely the chaos of existence, but more than that it's a crazy...