Ukraine Update: Like Sticks Snatched From the Fire
The country needs peace to enable deeper integration with Western Europe to a large degree via Poland and get away from the vampire...
The JGB Sell-Off is Risk-On
JGBs. The 2s10s curve is flat. The market is selling the long end. Where is that money going to go? The precedent is flow into EM...
China is the Global Economic Engine. Its Financial Markets do not Match Up
Asian risky debt is largely driven most strongly by JGB yields on one hand and S&P 500 levels on the other. However, Chinese debt...
Mrs. Watanabe Blew Up My Model Again.
Whenever you talk about JGBs, you can calm hysterical people down by saying this at the outset. For bond markets to well and truly...
Hedging AT1s
If you price the option built into the bond with a reasonable model, the price implies volatility higher than the regular option market. ...
Prudence Punished. A Defense of Germany
German households are understandably deeply offended by Syriza’s initial “screw-you” approach to debt negotiation. But on a deeper...
The Bond Girls. Love Your Treasuries Even in a Bubble
Finished reading BAML’s report: “My Stock is My Bond”. The jist is that in a time of epically low, increasingly negative, bond yields a...
High Yield Relative Valuation is Cheap to Model
Relative valuation shows HY credit to be as cheap to model as it has been in twelve months. Bond guys look at balance sheets. Well and...
Sberbank and the Russian Mentality Seen Behind Enemy Lines
Sberbank: You take out a mortgage with these cats, and they give you the tabby they just picked up off street. For luck. Seriously. ...
Finding Value in High Yield
The established relationship between price and yields—price goes up yields go down, price goes down and yields go up—is ever true. But...