What UST 1s30s is saying about Future Rate Hikes
October and November have not been kind to hedge funds. No strategy has made money (excepting the weird guys that lose 5% a month for...
Gold and its Valuation: Lessons from the Vatican
We’ve all heard the sales pitch: Gold functions as a hedge against averse geopolitical events, so buy it at any price to deal with any...
Happy Anniversary Bolshevik Revolution! You Couldn’t Have Done It Without the Royal Economic Societ
History is full of yin-to-yang processes where the seeds of an idea in one corner lead to the exact opposite of what was expected. Some...
The Complexity of the Global Refugee Problem
Ever since I was a kid I’ve loved good science fiction. The thought processes that inform proper forward-looking science fiction is very...
Trumpism and the “Barbarian Invasions”
I have discarded the belief that men make history. Conditions make history. History rhymes as conditions repeat. Although I admit...
Rates and Duration, Credit and Value
I’ve been silent for a while. No need to talk about matters until the thesis “credit will be tighter in further into 2016 compared to...
Future Recoveries will be Essentially Jobless
Fact: In the past ten years, there has been a 119% increase in EBIT but only a 31% increase in the number of employees. Hourly earnings...
Forget Mean Reversion. The Alpha is in Trend Following
The regulators, in a blind quest for “stability,” have undone anyone who dares take a risk. They don't even know what stability is. Most...
Secular Stagnation and Earnings Crises
The bad news. Credit spreads are predicting a recession for 2016. Not much better for credit, late 2015 they were processing the...
Some Quick Thoughts on 2016 Credit
The environment for the U.S. credit markets will remain extremely challenging. The uncertainties associated with Fed interest-rate policy...