Almost Normal
Ukraine has crossed through the default hurdle, having successfully restructured the majority of its debt pile with 75% of creditors...
A Growing Divergence in Japanese Credit
There is an interesting divergence in Japanese credit. The premium on Japanese corporate credit swaps is wide compared to the premium on...
The Foreign Bond Premium
It’s been richer. It’s been cheaper. But it’s always positive. The US domiciled to USD foreign HY bond spread. That is to say: the...
More on Equity Catching down to Credit: The Case of Energy
Catching down? Energy names have overdone it. After the 30-year bond bull market, traditional fixed income is becoming a more difficult...
Four Decades of High Yield Default Rates: A Forecast
A bear market in treasuries means a 250 bps rise in spread levels on existing high yield bonds. These bonds could easily price in the...
Two Emerging Market Shelters in the Storm
Summary I posted about two places to huddle up given the Big Kahuna deterioration in emerging markets. They are both in credit-land. The...
The Planetary Significance of the Ukraine Debt Restructuring
Ukraine is a microcosm of the worst case scenario for the rest of the world. Broadly speaking, its problems are common to the rest of the...
Rising Rates, the Treasury Complex, and Banking. The Straight Dope
The financial ecosystem is trying to figure out what comes next. The equity market is down 50 points on a given day and the long bond...
Interest Rate Normalization Requires Huge Reverse Repo: Fixed Income Volatility and Opportunity
The Fed intends to raise rates in an effort to "normalize" the financial ecosystem. The Fed pretty much knows that without draining...
Equity Will Continue to Catch Down to Credit
I believe that an interest rate hike has been priced in. The impact of 2x 25 basis point hikes late this year followed by early next on...