A Tale of Three CDX Curves
What follows is a very brief parsing of the US high yield credit market based on CDS index curves based on the swap level quotes. Swap...
Quantamentals: Oil, Vol Transitions, and Mean Reversion
Speed read: The energy equity discount to bonds isn’t cheap enough to buy the bottom of the capital structure. This month’s bond moves...
Carry No More: Credit Evolution and Fragility
So I didn’t post an update on credit leading up to the Fed rate decision, because frankly nothing really mattered without that piece of...
Peace on Earth, Good Will to Banksters
This was my Uncle Larry's favorite article. Since he passed last December, I've thought of him a lot. His integrity, his warmth, his...
Thugocracy, Boobocracy, and the King’s Indian Defense
The winning trade for the geopolitics on top of us all right now means ignoring boobocracy, going tactically short thugocracy, and being...
The Craftsmen, the Pot-Heads, and the Prophets
This is a little note to demonstrate an “impossibility result”. Quite simply, it is impossible to figure it all out; to put it all in a...
Days of Sand and the Victory of Time
“We swear by God that we are ready to sacrifice our blood for Egypt and its people against any terrorist, extremist, or fool.” I still...
Good News is Bad News. The Fed is Raising Rates
Two news items of note for bonds guys last week. November 6, 2015. The jobs report crushed it. Non-farm payrolls registered 271k new...
The Twilight of the BRICs and CTRL-C, CTRL-V Growth
It is high time for a relief rally in emerging markets, and we got one. CDS EM spreads properly compressed over the last 30 days or so. ...
Lounge Against the Machines: The Future for Quants
Pre-Lehman, credit guys were plucky guys facing the financial universe with a spreadsheet and an R module. Soon enough, it looked like...